What next after Kyoto?

What Next After Kyoto?

As soon as Barack Obama had been elected into the most important political position in the world, the Foundation for Endangered Species received a number of messages of hope from different parts of the world. There is some optimism for future political movement that could help solve the "world in crisis". The first message that I received was an email from Frances Beinecke president of the Natural Resources Defense Council of California who told me about the refreshing political atmosphere in the USA immediately after the presidential election. She wrote to me because the Foundation is one of their networking partners. Together we give added civic weight to the California State - UK government agreement on Climate Change signed by governor Arnold Schwarzennegar and the then prime minister Tony Blair.

However the Foundation not only looks to our greatest allies in the USA for future environmental developments, we are also looking at our European partners in the EEC. So recently I took part in a Climate Change debate in the European Parliament in Brussels discussing what international agreement is to follow the Kyoto Protocol. This seems a real distance away from daily life in South Bucks and Middlesex, and so it is - but only in geographical terms! The conference delegates were hugely knowledgeable and were as sharp as knives, who firmly believed that we are close to a hugely destructive ecological disaster, so that whatever international agreement replaces the Kyoto Protocol, it will affect every person - whether we like it or not. Moreover, we are already experiencing Global Warming together with its consequences, and will continue to do so for the rest of our lives. The EEC and the UK government are likely to give a commitment to an agreement to decrease our present levels of pollutive living.

This will mean 'going green' in our lifestyles with even more recycling, 'green' travelling, energy and consumption than at present. I have some personal reservations about some issues raised at the conference as the British public is not identical to other communities throughout Europe. Even so, the UK population who do want to live without creating unnecessary rubbish or pollution is growing rapidly. Our local area seems to be similar to the rest of the country as more people are deciding to live in a state of 'Sustainable Development' rather than leaving any unnecessary 'Carbon Footprint'. If most people are given a choice by society they will prefer this cleaner lifestyle whenever possible.. Moreover, many people are already spending more money on green commodities in their grocery shopping, such as 'Ecover' washing liquid amongst many other items.

So what were the governmental and international level issues of this debate in the European Parliament? The EEC is putting together a plan for everyone to understand the danger we are in at the moment and what drastic measures the governments, non government organizations (NGOs such as the Foundation for Endangered Species, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth) and the public must tackle. Furthermore the terms used in the European Parliament and in the imminent meetings in both Poznan and Copenhagen are that we need a new 'Global Contract' that leads to 'Global Justice'. It may be too presumptuous to talk about its details at this point, but it will amount to every household considering, how we can live our lives without creating more pollution and living with a new global citizenship mentality. It means developing a new mind-set that will produce a different, but perfectly decent lifestyle that will be considered normal in the foreseeable future.

Inside this agreement governments will have to limit the Global Warming to a mere 2 degrees increase from the pre industrial revolution levels; and to limit the pollution of the air to no more than 500 parts per million. If we go over these limits - and it seems highly likely that we will - then we will hit the 'tipping points' when greater climate forces will be unleashed and will then be beyond our control. In other words, it could be too late to stop the huge ice losses of Antartica, Greenland and other places. This in turn could lead to huge sea level increases, tidal floods and the like. We are already witnessing droughts in the Amazon jungle, hurricanes and tornadoes in the Americas, and there will be more to come on a regular basis for us here in the UK too, according to all of the scientific reports.

So the general agreement of the conference was that these levels of global warming and pollution are unlikely to be completely avoided. Even so, a new internationally agreed socio-political contract will be with us in the next few years, and we must wait and see how it affects us.

It will, but in what ways?